Every pundit in political land is predicting that the outcome of this 2006 election is up for grabs and the "well-tuned" GOP GOTV organization will certainly make an impact on the final outcome. They cite the 2000, 2002 and 2004 elections as the culmination of years of laying the groundwork and enlisting troops to their cause.
Really? Where was that groundwork evident in 2000 where W lost the general and just won Florida because a bunch of seniors couldn't figure out the butterfly ballot in Palm Beach? In that election Bush didn't have his manufactured post 9/11 image to hang his Texas turban on, he wasn't widely viewed as the "Pastor-in-chief" yet by the Christian conservatives, and he didn't have the bully pulpit to hammer away with his GWOT message and scare the wits out of the general population. In 2002 and 2004 the "GOP on the ground troops" were actually pre-rewarded for their efforts by getting tickets to massive rallies where Bush and Cheney appeared in stadiums, fair grounds, and other large venues across the U.S. Oh, he was a heady draw in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania! Remember the images of breathless volunteers who showed up at these rallies with proud tears in their eyes when they were interviewed by the local media? Who were these volunteers and where are they now? And what are Bush/Cheney up to?
Just go to http://www.whitehouse.gov/... and compare the Bush appearances calendars from the months before the '02 and '04 elections to what he's up to now. Have we seen images of stadiums full of GOP faithful this year? Of course not, W is currently radioactive and nothing will change that before the election. No one wants to be seen with him except Barney.
It's hard to say where the volunteers for the GOP are these days. I'm sure there plenty are still out there ginning up the base but how many? I suspect that many of the secular volunteers who actively participated in the '02 and '04 elections are demoralized and not nearly as enthusiastic as they once were to do the "heavy lifting" for their congressmen this year. What about the Christian conservative volunteers? A recent nonpartisan Pew Research Center found that only 57 percent of white evangelicals are inclined to vote for Republican congressional candidates in the midterm elections, a 21-point drop in support among this critical part of the GOP base.
A recent "Stand Up For the Family" rally in the Christian heartland of Nashville TN had to be moved to a smaller venue because they couldn't sell enough $7 tickets to the Municipal Auditorium event (it holds between 11,000 and 12,000). The rally headlined a lot of the Christian right bigwigs (James Dobson, Tony Perkins, Richard Land, Ken Hutcherson and Gary Bauer.) Instead of getting the large crowd they originally expected, they actually had to give away books to the first 3,000 who attended and the event was free. http://guerillawomentn.blogspot.com/... And, apparently the Two Rivers Baptist Church wasn't even filled to capacity.
Let me remind you that in 2002 most of the senate races that were in contention were won by very slim margins and in 2004 Bush won by the slimmest popular margin for a sitting president in U.S. history. These figures prove the point that GOTV efforts are critical to winning elections but it doesn't indicate that the Bush/GOP's 72-hour-plan will be nearly as effective this year. Oh,they've got the money to get the paperwork ready: precinct maps, literature, door hangers. The question is: do they have the volunteers?